Latest highlights (October 2007):

All the precious metals produced a positive performance over the course of September, but for different reasons. Gold benefited from steady professional investment activity with a view to hedging against financial risk as well as the associated weakening of the dollar. There has been an unsuccessful attempt to clear $750 and as we enter October the market is undergoing a necessary correction as conditions had become overbought, and prices are sitting between $725 and $730. There is good support at $720 and further gains are expected in the medium term, but early October, with physical demand patchy, is likely to steady further consolidation.

Silver’s moves largely tracked gold during September with speculative activity dominating the market. Prices improved steadily over the month from the opening level of $12.10 and tested the resistance at $13.85 and $14 at the end of the month. This has proved very difficult to overcome and prompted a sharp fall under liquidation to test support at $13.20. This has held good, but it is likely to prove difficult to generate much of a bounce without renewed strength in gold.

Platinum was very strong over September, rallying from $1,265 to a high just in excess of $1,390 on the back of physical tightness and the expectation that the market will be in a deficit this year. Physical demand has been strong and supply disruptions, although relatively small, have also contributed to positive sentiment. The price has come off and is consolidating between $1,360 and $1,370 in early October and further gains are expected in the medium term.

Palladium also improved during September after its heavy falls in August and rallied in September from $325 to $345, before heavy buying activity, driven largely by funds, but underpinned by solid industrial demand, has taken prices towards $370 at the start of October. Whether these levels can be sustained in the face of poor fundamentals and the possibility of Russian sales for inventory must be open to doubt.

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