Latest highlights (June 2009):

While the market has been entertained by news that Frankfurt airport now boasts a vending machine that dispenses gold bars (see page seven), gold dollar-denominated gold prices have remained steady in the middle of June. The relative stability of the dollar has combined with continued slackness in physical demand and although scrap return has also been slow, market sentiment has been nervous. Prices fell from $990 at the start of the month, dropping to $935 and to the support line at the lower side of its medium term uptrend. This trend has not been severed and there is a feeling in the market that weak holders are now out and that the price has the scope for recovery.

Silver has underperformed during the correction and has dipped below $13 (after being as high as $16.25 at the start of June), but it is starting to attract some buying activity and this, if anything, is a good lead indicator for a recovery in gold.
Platinum and palladium remain comparatively resilient. Palladium prices reached a high of $266 in early June and have since corrected towards $230 before bouncing up to $245 as investors and speculators are still looking to pre-empt a recovery in automotive demand. The surge in Russian State authority palladium sales in late 2008 and early 2009 has tailed off and palladium is attracting some industrial buying activity. The net speculative long on NYMEX is at a twelve-month high and this does tend to suggest that the speculative market is perhaps somewhat over-long and if prices do not recover further then some stale bull liquidation may well develop.

Platinum approached $1,300 in early June and subsequently corrected towards $1,200. While palladium bounced, platinum has been holding steady between $1,200 and $1,230. Investors have continued to add to their ETF holdings, and in late June they have almost recovered to the record holdings of April 2009 (16.2 tonnes). The net speculative long in NYMEX is at a six month high, which suggests the potential for a further retreat, and technical analysis is mildly bearish. Investor demand is now starting to appear in Asia and so this correction may well be nearing completion.

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